Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 2.046212 2.714126 3.619551 4.967510 6.978341e+00 9.960576e+00 14.907120
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.437868 2.187005 3.399238 5.621832 9.888721e+00 1.844762e+01 39.266642
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.023887 1.735962 3.068507 6.002255 1.316402e+01 3.291569e+01 109.495639
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.824819 1.553645 3.131290 7.354633 2.098690e+01 7.803753e+01 544.579136
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.665090 1.373779 3.123958 8.783286 3.335022e+01 2.052324e+02 5200.565344
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.550777 1.238581 3.164084 10.704971 5.635626e+01 6.994074e+02 484445.343845
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.456848 1.107012 3.145985 12.751441 9.596686e+01 3.210335e+03 NaN
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.356696 0.909502 2.786441 12.919813 1.306534e+02 1.317414e+04 NaN
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.276901 0.733829 2.383308 12.320060 1.616627e+02 6.260462e+04 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.231399 0.642534 2.243022 13.339860 2.532510e+02 2.738199e+06 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.205851 0.604024 2.302174 16.386566 5.341937e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.188856 0.587227 2.461896 21.560343 1.484417e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.166013 0.542062 2.468890 26.196938 4.262373e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.138256 0.464125 2.218054 26.451957 8.137044e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.114383 0.391714 1.938758 25.243493 1.355681e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.101789 0.361791 1.913829 29.637429 6.415282e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.090544 0.332541 1.867638 34.080498 5.241068e+05 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.081842 0.310973 1.860823 40.769840 4.979378e+07 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.073933 0.289491 1.834250 47.813252 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.063919 0.253096 1.638598 45.709858 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.054796 0.217949 1.423379 40.822868 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.049285 0.199575 1.349778 43.376176 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.046241 0.192992 1.385809 54.594205 NaN NaN NaN